Deep in the heart of one of the most secure UAP facilities in Londinium, two maximum security holding cells sit next to one another.
There is a bank of monitors. Cameras and microphones that never shut off. Every move, every sound that takes place within those cells is dutifully recorded and measured.
Two cells. Two prisoners.-----
In Game Theory, the study of strategic human interactions, there is a problem of particular interest called The Prisoner's Dilemma. In its simplest form, it illustrates a situation where there is a tendency towards non-cooperative behaviour between participants, even when there are greater gains in working together.
The scenario goes something like this:
Two suspects are detained in connection with a robbery. Perhaps they are carrying weapons that are linked to the crime. They say they purchased the weapons on the black market, but claim they are innocent of any other misdeed.
We separate them for interrogation.
If they both hold to their story (cooperate with each other) and maintain their silence in the face of our interrogation, then they probably dodge the robbery charge. We charge them with a weapon's offence.
If one of the suspects turns state's evidence he is granted full immunity from prosecution. His erstwhile partner receives the maximum sentence. We throw the book at him.
If both of them confess (defect from their agreement) then they both do time. A reduced sentence because they cooperated with the authorities. A plea bargain.
In the single round version of this 'game', the dominant strategy is actually for each player to defect or betray the other player. Confess to the crime. Do a lesser sentence. Look out for yourself. You also minimize risk to yourself, because if you stay silent and your co-conspirator confesses, you will be left to take the blame.This is great news for law enforcement. It is not so helpful if you are innocent and your friend fingers you for the crime.
However, once this problem is applied to a wider field of human behaviour such as the political arena, where there are multiple players and no set limit to the number of repetitions the game can be played, cooperation between players often evolves as a preferred strategy. Or more specifically:
- Cooperate when you can.
- Hold accountable those who betray you.
- Forgive them when they seek genuine reconciliation.
Why? Because now players have the opportunity to penalize each other on further rounds of the game for non-cooperative behaviour. In this iterative version, social gains and losses accumulate. Strategies must now incorporate the long term.
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As the month of April progressed, there were a number of developments that set the stage for the events that would follow. The first came in the form of two official announcements from the United Systems Directorate.
On April 5, USD Lt. Commander Randt released the following statement:
"The alliance held between the STC and USD, is no longer in effect. Our alliance recently broke down and we are no longer considered allies. Please, take note of this for reference in future conflicts."
Diplomatic sources hinted that factions within the federationist movement either could not fulfill or did not recognize any alliance obligations to the USD.
Within the week, five days later to be precise, the USD High Council, took a further step and declared the United Systems Directorate an armed neutrality - which is to say they would no longer be participant in the war between the Orions and the UFS, but that they reserved the right to defend themselves to the fullest extent of their capabilities if attacked.
This move by the USD along with rumours of deep divisions within the federationist movement left the region without an effective counterbalance and provided the opportunity for the Myrmidon and Orion agendas to unfold.
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And on April 9, I received the following message:
** Secured Channel ** Aurotharius Wylder has been moved to a more isolated location nearby. Coordinates herein. ** End Secured Communication **
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[ooc - Thank you Jai. Pictures courtesy of UAP Special Projects]
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